One Year From Today

Imagine there's no Bush. It's easy if you try.

One year from today, on January 20, 2009, that dream will be a reality. George W. Bush will no longer be in the White House, and we will have a new president.

Conventional wisdom has it that this is a Democratic year, which stands to reason: an unpopular war, an economy that certainly seems to be sliding into recession, a party in power that's been thoroughly discredited, it would seem to be a slam dunk for the Democrats.

Not so fast, Von Ryan.

Could John McCain, who won the South Carolina primary yesterday, win the general election if he's the nonimee? Against Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton? I think it's entirely possible. There are some Republicans (like Rush Limbaugh) who are not enthused about McCain because they don't think he's a real Republican. Tom DeLay dissed him in Washington recently for having "betrayed" the Republican cause, which is pretty fucking funny when you consider the source.

Obama appeals to upper-income, college educated whites and blacks; Clinton appeals to women, especially older women. But McCain appeals to blue collar whites and independents, and I'm not sure that he couldn't win enough in a general election to take it away from the Democrats. Could Robert Novak be right? Could nominating a black man or a white woman for president just hand the White House back over to the Republicans?

Not a pleasant thought. But then I console myself with the thought that, no matter who is taking the oath of office one year from today, it won't be George W. Bush.

Tom Moran