Who Will Win in Iowa?

The Iowa caucuses are tomorrow -- is that possible? Are we really going to get this thing over with at long last? Some of these people have been practically living in Iowa the past few months.

Everyone says it's more or less a dead heat and that turnout will determine who wins. And some, like Adam Nagourney in today's New York Times, are postulating that the margin of "victory" could be so razor-thin that the results could be inconclusive.

My hunch is, though, that that won't happen. My hunch is that John Edwards is going to win the Iowa caucuses.

Why do I think that?

I have to admit, the very nature of a hunch means that it's hard to rationalize. But here are my reasons:

• 1) John Edwards is the only one of the three so-called front-runners who has run in Iowa before.
• 2) He made a surprisingly strong showing in Iowa four years ago.
• 3) He has practically lived in Iowa for the past year.
• 4) Unlike Hillary Clinton (who is targeting women and elderly voters, the latter of whom at least are disinclined to caucus in bad weather) and Barack Obama (who is targeting, among others, college kids who might not even be in the state during their college break), Edwards is targeting the hard-core caucus voters who have been there and done that before. I think that's the right move.

And last, but not least...

• 5) He's everybody's second choice. That makes a big difference in Iowa.

Now I could be wrong, and perhaps Senators Clinton or Obama will win outright, or, as the Times thinks, the results could be frustrating if not infuriating to all concerned.

But keep an eye on John Edwards on Thursday night. I think he might surprise people.

Tom Moran