Will Hillary Get It?

They're talking about it as if it's a done deal. CNN says that Obama is "on track" to nominated Hillary Clinton Secretary of State, according to Huffington Post. The announcement will be made after Thanksgiving. Everyone seems to think it's inevitable.

Why don't I believe it?

Maybe I'm just being cynical. But I just have this feeling that the deal's going to fall through -- and that Obama's people want it to fall through.

This is what I'm thinking:

The incoming administration considers Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State. This would, if it goes through, appease all of those Hillary supporters who feel as if she was "dissed" by not being named to the ticket over the summer. The most prestigious post in the cabinet, it would be a very nice consolation prize for the woman who would be the president-elect today if she hadn't run such a miserable presidential campaign.

But in offering it to her, Obama's people know -- at least according to my slightly cynical theory they know -- that she can't, and invariably won't, accept it.

Why?

Because in order to accept the position, former president Bill Clinton will have to open up his finances (specifically, the donors to his presidential library) in order to avoid the appearance of conflict of interest. And while Clinton has given what has been called an "unprecedented" amount of disclosure, there's a difference between unprecedented and total -- and I'm guessing that total is what they're looking for.

And if Bill Clinton doesn't give total financial disclosure, which they know he can't or won't give, they can use that as an entirely plausible excuse for not giving Hillary the position. And Obama gets the best of both worlds: he gets the credit for "offering" her the position, while Bill Clinton gets the blame for seeing to it that she doesn't get it.

A little too Machiavellian, did you say? Perhaps. It's certainly possible that Hillary will get the nomination in a week or so. But until then, I'm thinking that my theory is at least plausible. And I would guess that it's at least 50/50 that it'll go down that way. I'm betting Hillary stays exactly where she is.

But if she does get it, you can bet on New York Governor David Paterson appointing Bobby Kennedy Jr. to take her place in the senate. Why that is is something I'll go into at another time.