The Worst Case Scenario

Republican operative Bill Greener in an article in Salon.com makes a case that Barack Obama needs to be at over 50% in the battleground states because he is convinced that the so-called "undecideds" are going to break disproportionately for John McCain:

As you look at the polling data in the homestretch of this election, pay close attention whenever you see any numbers, be they statewide or national, where Sen. Obama is below 50 percent. So long as there are more than a handful of voters describing themselves as undecided, I will maintain that Sen. McCain is very much in the race. Even if Sen. Obama were to open a larger lead, my basis for analyzing things would remain the same. Are there enough undecided voters in crucial states to bridge whatever gap exists in the head-to-head? If so, don't be shocked if on Election Day, Sen. McCain is your winner.

If this analysis is true, then based on the one poll that I examined, that would mean that McCain will win both Ohio and Florida, as well as North Carolina and Nevada. Obama would win New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Could this be another long Tuesday night? We'll see in eight days.