The Wave of the Future

Everyone agrees that it's going to be big. The only question is -- just how big will it be? A Category 3? Or a Category 5? Will everything get swept away?

I'm speaking, of course, of the November midterm elections, that are, as of tomorrow, ten weeks away. Everyone seems to agree that the Democrats are probably going to regain the House if Representatives. The question then is: will they also take back the Senate?

Al Hunt of Bloomberg has an interesting piece on this. Hunt quotes Tom Davis, a Republican House member from Virginia, as saying that: "The issue matrix and political dynamics are not good for us. Only some big national or international event before the election can change that.'"

Or some of Karl Rove's patented dirty tricks. At this point that's pretty much all I'm concerned about.

On the odds of the Democrats retaking the Senate, Hunt has this to say:

"To win the six seats necessary for a Senate majority, Democrats need a perfect political storm that even a tsunami may not produce. There is, party strategists believe, a good chance to knock off five Republican incumbents; any other victory would be a real upset, and Republicans are competitive for several Democratic-held Senate seats."

So it's possible that, just as Joe Lieberman managed to lose to Ned Lamont by only four points instead of the 14 that he was trailing by in polls taken right before the primary, the Republicans might be able to just barely hold onto the Senate by a seat or two.

That will be disappointing, although I'm still an optimist that the Democrats will take back the Senate as well as the House. But even if that does not happen, and the Dems only get the House and are a seat or two behind in the Senate, that's still good news. Can you guess why?

Al Hunt has the answer:

"The most important difference -- and the reason the White House desperately hopes to avoid a Democratic House -- will be much more aggressive oversight. With tough lawmakers like [John] Dingell of Michigan and Henry Waxman of California setting oversight agendas, defense contractors such as Halliburton Co., eavesdroppers at the national security and intelligence agencies and anti-environmentalists at the Interior Department will be in for a rough few years."

Imagine. This administration finally being held to account. People like Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Feith finally being forced to answer questions under oath. Halliburton executives finally having to explain where billions of dollars of Iraqi redevelopment money went. The full story of the arrogance and hubris of the people who got us into this mess of a war finally being told, and the people responsible finally being held to account. One part of government actually doing what they're supposed to do under the Constitution.

Imagine that -- just for a second.

That will be worth it -- even if we don't take back the Senate. But be prepared. This gang of criminals is not going to let go of power easily -- they think they're entitled to it and that anything they do to hold onto it is morally and ethically justified. And the thought of Democrats forcing them to answer questions is having them crapping in their pants right now -- so expect Karl Rove and all the other crooks at the White House to do whatever they can think of to make sure it doesn't happen.

Tom Moran