Where Are We?

Things aren't looking too good right now.

It seems like we might be on the verge of, not just an American financial catastrophe, but a financial catastrophe of global proportions. The stock market is plummeting, people are frightened and are looking to the government for answers.

And Andy Sullivan thinks the presidential election could end up in a tie.

Oh, really?

Andy Sullivan (not to be confused with Andrew Sullivan, who's gay and supposedly conservative) wrote an article for Reuters yesterday floating the possibility that the 2008 election could be a draw:

A handful of battleground states are likely to determine the November 4 U.S. presidential election and it's possible that Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama could split them in a manner that leaves each just short of victory.

If that happens, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would pick the president but it's unclear whether Democrats would have enough votes to send Obama to the White House.

Does anyone really think this is going to happen? Or was it just a slow news day yesterday?

Sullivan elaborates:

If McCain wins Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio but loses Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to Obama, both candidates could end up with 269 electoral votes.

Other, less likely scenarios -- McCain losing Virginia and New Hampshire but winning Michigan, for example -- also could result in a tie.

I don't want to seem flippant, but the way things look right now (and keep in mind that the election is a month away and there's always the possibility of an October surprise) the only way that the Democrats could lose this election would be if Osama Bin Laden were to release a tape of himself and Barack Obama having sex.

Something tells me that's not going to happen.

What is likely to happen (given all the caveats I've stated above) is that this is going to be a transformational election, akin to 1932 and 1980.

Take a look at the record of the last 76 years:

• Between 1932 and 1968 (not counting the latter) there were nine presidential elections. The Democrats won seven of them (Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 being the exceptions).
• From 1968 to 2008 (again, not counting the latter) there were ten presidential elections. The Republicans won seven of them (Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996 being the exceptions).

I'd say that it's logical to assume that the pendulum is going to swing back towards the Democrats -- possibly for a generation.

The economy is not a winning issue for Republicans -- and everything is about the economy right now. McCain and Palin know this -- which is why they're flinging mud so furiously at Barack Obama right now, hoping against hope that they can drive up his negatives enough so that they'll have a chance to pull even in the polls. It's not going to work -- not with the Dow taking a dump it's not.

Meanwhile McCain is pulling out of Michigan, Virginia Republicans think the state might go Democratic for the first time since it voted for Lydon Johnson over Barry Goldwater 44 years ago, and McCain pretty much has to run the table of states that Bush won in 2004 in order to win. Even Karl Rove thinks Obama's going to win. Karl fucking Rove.

I don't want to say what I think. I'm afraid to jinx it. But I'm getting more certain every day.

I'll give you a hint. It begins with "l" and it rhymes with "grandslide."

Republican senators (like Elizabeth Dole) are almost certain to lose their seats to Democrats. It's entirely possible that Obama might not win, but that he might win by a huge margin and take a shitload of Democratic senators and congressmen with him into office.

It's almost intoxicating to think about -- at which point I find myself muttering under my breath, "President Mondale... President Dukakis... President Gore... President Kerry..."