Where We Are Now

The Democratic and Republican conventions are still in the future. Labor Day, when the campaign supposedly starts in earnest, is six weeks away.

Where do we stand?

Most people would tell you that the election is a lock for Barack, which, as anyone who has followed presidential politics over the past thirty years or so would understand, makes me nervous. And it should -- I remember the impregnable 17-point lead President Dukakis had over that Bush guy in 1988.

But some stats (from The Weekly Standard, no less) might help ease my incipient angst:

A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that nearly half of the liberals surveyed are enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, while only 13 percent of conservatives are enthusiastic about McCain. More generally, 91 percent of self-identified Obama supporters are "enthusiastic" about their candidate; 54 percent say they are "very enthusiastic." Seventy-three percent of such McCain supporters say they are "enthusiastic" about his candidacy, but only 17 percent say they are "very enthusiastic."

A USA Today/Gallup poll reported similar findings last week. That survey shows that while 67 percent of Barack Obama's supporters are "more excited than usual about voting" for their candidate, only 31 percent of John McCain's supporters can say the same thing. More troubling for the McCain campaign is that more than half of those who identified themselves as McCain backers--54 percent--say they are "less excited than usual" about their candidate.

Sounds good, right? Should we be measuring for drapes in the Oval Office?

Not so fast, Von Ryan.

They say a week is a lifetime in politics, and the G.O.P. is known for being considerably more ruthless than the Democrats, so given that they have to feel under the gun at this point I wouldn't be surprised at any dirty trick they might pull in order to remain in power -- tricks that will make the infamous Willie Horton ads seem like so many episodes of "Spongebob Squarepants."

But right now Republican operatives are looking at what's likely to happen in November are forecasting a "catastrophe." And what I find interesting is what might happen down-ticket -- particularly in House and Senate races. If 2008 looks to be as big a political tsunami as people say, Obama could be swept into the White House with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. How cool would that be?

And yet... I'm reminded of that scene in "Star Wars" when they get away from the Death Star and they go into the combat with the fighters that have been sent after them and when Luke Skywalker shoots one down (in a scene blatantly cribbed from Howard Hawks' "Air Force," he yells out, "I got him!"

"Great, kid," Han Solo replies. "Don't get cocky."

That would be my message to Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, progressives all across the country and myself as well.

Don't get cocky. Democrats have been known to snatch defeat out of the mouth of victory before. Let's play this one nice and careful and make sure we do everything we can to win.

And save the celebrating until November 5th.